SpaceX expects quarterly revenue to reach $25 billion by late 2026

Elon Musk has shared ambitious financial forecasts for SpaceX during the 33rd Barron's Investment Conference at Lincoln Center in New York. The entrepreneur predicted that SpaceX's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2026 will increase by approximately 70% compared to the previous quarter, approaching $25 billion.

• Projected SpaceX revenue for Q4 2026 will reach approximately $25 billion.
• This quarterly figure will exceed NASA's annual budget of $24.44 billion.
• Annualized revenue run rate is expected to hit $100 billion in December and exceed $500 billion by late 2027.
• US government contracts will drop below 10% of revenue, with Anthropic becoming a major client.

Financial growth and comparison with NASA

To put the growth into perspective, SpaceX reported $14.575 billion in revenue for the third quarter alone, marking a 161% year-over-year increase and an 86.5% jump from the second quarter. If Musk's forecast materializes, the private aerospace company will generate more revenue in just three months than NASA receives for its entire annual operations, as the U.S. space agency's budget for the 2026 fiscal year sits at approximately $24.44 billion.

Evolving business structure and projections

The entrepreneur reiterated his previous projection that SpaceX's annualized revenue run rate will reach $100 billion in December. By the end of 2027, he expects this figure to surpass $500 billion based on current income annualized rather than actual yearly earnings. At the same time, the company's business model is shifting, with U.S. government contracts accounting for less than 10% of revenue in the fourth quarter, down from 16.6% in the previous period.

AI computing sector and market reaction

A significant new driver of growth is the AI computing segment, where Anthropic has already become SpaceX's largest client. Following Musk's remarks, investor sentiment surged, pushing SpaceX shares up by 8.3% during Friday's trading session, with gains reaching approximately 9% in after-hours trading—the largest jump in the company's valuation in nearly three months.